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Rudy Moser’s Husker Probability Page |
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Team |
Current Rating |
Home field Adv. |
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Nebraska |
80.7 |
2.62 |
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Results |
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Spread |
Probability |
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Nebraska |
Opponent |
Difference vs. Spread |
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Western Michigan |
67.49 |
H |
14 |
1.000 |
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47 |
24 |
9 |
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San Jose St. |
62.51 |
H |
26.5 |
1.000 |
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35 |
12 |
-3.5 |
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New Mexico St. |
54.13 |
H |
25.5 |
1.000 |
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38 |
7 |
5.5 |
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Virginia Tech |
82.93 |
H |
6.5 |
0.000 |
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30 |
35 |
-11.5 |
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Missouri |
82.8 |
H |
-10 |
0.000 |
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17 |
52 |
-25 |
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Texas Tech |
86.75 |
A |
-20.5 |
0.000 |
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31 |
37 |
14.5 |
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Iowa State |
60.47 |
A |
7 |
1.000 |
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35 |
7 |
21 |
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Baylor |
71.06 |
H |
11 |
1.000 |
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32 |
20 |
1 |
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Oklahoma |
94.15 |
A |
-22 |
0.000 |
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28 |
62 |
-12 |
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Kansas |
78.8 |
H |
1 |
1.000 |
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45 |
35 |
9 |
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Kansas State |
68.69 |
A |
6 |
1.000 |
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56 |
28 |
22 |
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Colorado |
69.36 |
H |
18 |
1.000 |
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40 |
31 |
-9 |
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Gator Bowl (Clemson) |
78.87 |
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-2.5 |
1.000 |
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26 |
21 |
7.5 |
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Average |
2.19 |
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Std. Dev. |
13.89 |
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Median |
5.5 |
Ratings are from Jeff Sagarin Ratings 1/10/09
Final Record Probability
|
Record |
0-12 |
1-11 |
2-10 |
3-9 |
4-8 |
5-7 |
6-6 |
7-5 |
8-4 |
9-3 |
10-2 |
11-1 |
12-0 |
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Probability |
1.0000 |
Spring Football is Here!!
With spring football here I figured that my site needed an update. I really didn’t change much, just added a few Husker N’s next to the title and made the background a cream color.
Is it too early to look at next season? Better check it out here.
Final Record chances over the course of the year (calculated retroactively using 10/26/08 Sagarin Ratings)
|
Record |
Preseason |
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
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12-0 |
0.00091 |
0.00126 |
0.00173 |
0.00189 |
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11-1 |
0.01148 |
0.01514 |
0.02042 |
0.02221 |
0.00319 |
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10-2 |
0.05774 |
0.07404 |
0.09369 |
0.10057 |
0.03526 |
0.00847 |
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9-3 |
0.15381 |
0.18452 |
0.21782 |
0.22909 |
0.14541 |
0.0796 |
0.03542 |
0.04313 |
0.05525 |
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8-4 |
0.24512 |
0.26845 |
0.28701 |
0.29258 |
0.28655 |
0.25433 |
0.22009 |
0.25862 |
0.31576 |
0.26043 |
0.51189 |
0.84048 |
1 |
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7-5 |
0.25053 |
0.24363 |
0.22773 |
0.2215 |
0.29673 |
0.33987 |
0.36322 |
0.386 |
0.40573 |
0.45031 |
0.41256 |
0.15952 |
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6-6 |
0.17078 |
0.14272 |
0.11156 |
0.10099 |
0.16984 |
0.22531 |
0.26562 |
0.23941 |
0.19268 |
0.24731 |
0.07555 |
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5-7 |
0.079 |
0.05447 |
0.03354 |
0.02705 |
0.05372 |
0.07803 |
0.09712 |
0.06614 |
0.03058 |
0.04195 |
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4-8 |
0.02477 |
0.01333 |
0.00593 |
0.0039 |
0.00874 |
0.01347 |
0.01733 |
0.00671 |
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3-9 |
0.00515 |
0.00199 |
0.00055 |
0.00023 |
0.00057 |
0.00091 |
0.0012 |
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2-10 |
0.00067 |
0.00016 |
0.00002 |
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1-11 |
0.00005 |
0.00001 |
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0-12 |
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The Stacked Bar Graph clearly shows that the sum of all probabilities adds up to 1.
Here is a table of data on each team’s Sagarin rating from preseason up to this point in time.
|
Team |
Preseason |
Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 11 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
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Nebraska |
77.85 |
78.11 |
79.03 |
79.84 |
79.54 |
78.41 |
77.04 |
77.49 |
79.12 |
78.39 |
77.69 |
79.49 |
79.38 |
79.72 |
79.54 |
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Western Michigan |
63.74 |
64.46 |
64.87 |
65.51 |
65.39 |
69.04 |
69.85 |
70.6 |
72.07 |
71.65 |
72.24 |
73.49 |
73.55 |
73.52 |
72.24 |
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San Jose St. |
60.66 |
60.13 |
60.43 |
63.5 |
62.18 |
67.84 |
67.84 |
69.71 |
72.07 |
71.18 |
69.4 |
67.01 |
64.55 |
62.92 |
62.99 |
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New Mexico St. |
54.85 |
55.34 |
55.65 |
54.77 |
56.27 |
60.08 |
61.11 |
64.46 |
63.81 |
59.39 |
57.95 |
58 |
57.41 |
56.61 |
54.63 |
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Virginia Tech |
89.07 |
82.45 |
84.67 |
85.37 |
84.88 |
83.01 |
81.94 |
80.82 |
79.36 |
77.31 |
76.66 |
78.38 |
78.73 |
79.69 |
80.09 |
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Missouri |
82.44 |
81.65 |
80.49 |
82.34 |
81.24 |
80.24 |
87.74 |
82.91 |
84.83 |
86.1 |
84.85 |
85.04 |
86.01 |
86.21 |
84.11 |
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at Texas Tech |
81.69 |
80.19 |
82.83 |
81.89 |
82.34 |
82.57 |
85.29 |
85.61 |
84.48 |
87.05 |
91.63 |
94.14 |
92.59 |
91.04 |
90.58 |
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at Iowa State |
67.46 |
69.27 |
70.31 |
69.6 |
67.63 |
66.52 |
66.31 |
64.45 |
63.14 |
60.99 |
61.01 |
61.54 |
60.57 |
60.17 |
60.83 |
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Baylor |
61.75 |
60.01 |
61.8 |
66.68 |
67.82 |
70.21 |
69.44 |
71.6 |
68.42 |
68.68 |
69.15 |
70.01 |
70.46 |
70.74 |
71.21 |
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at Oklahoma |
89.98 |
87.19 |
90.32 |
92.5 |
91.44 |
92.58 |
92.87 |
90.71 |
90.52 |
89.48 |
90.19 |
90.99 |
89.95 |
93.71 |
94.92 |
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Kansas |
80.62 |
77.2 |
81.06 |
79.81 |
77.64 |
76.52 |
76.57 |
79.24 |
80.54 |
76.18 |
77.46 |
77.08 |
75.46 |
75.68 |
77.8 |
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at Kansas State |
75.79 |
76.02 |
77.44 |
78.38 |
76.74 |
72.56 |
70.2 |
72.46 |
69.1 |
70.73 |
70.73 |
70.55 |
68.76 |
68.45 |
68.68 |
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Colorado |
72.68 |
76.06 |
73.99 |
73.56 |
76.47 |
75.48 |
74.04 |
72.85 |
72.77 |
71 |
69.6 |
69.63 |
68.47 |
69.03 |
69.24 |
Where did this come from??
Most of the credit for this page goes to Brad Carlin for giving me the idea. Can you statistically predict the outcome of the college football season? After making a few dodgy assumptions, like each game is independent of each other and mean and std. deviation are constant through the season, the answer is: Sure, why not? This can easily tell us what are chances are of winning each game and what are chances are of winning all the games to the end of the season. The problem came when trying to figure out different final records. Calculating the probability of a 12-0 season was a cinch, but what about the chances of going 10-2 or 9-3? With 12 games there are 66 different ways you can lose 2 games and there are 220 ways you can lose 3 games. That’s a lot of possibilities! Unfortunately, since each game has a unique probability there is no formula to find out what the chances are of each final record.
Rudy Moser: rmoser@lps.org