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Rudy Moser’s Husker Probability Page

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2009 Husker Football Schedule

Team

Current Rating

Home field Adv.

 

 

Nebraska

80.7

2.62

 

 

 

 

 

Spread

Probability

Florida Atlantic

62.82

H

20.5

0.928

Arkansas State

62.26

H

21.06

0.934

Virginia Tech

82.93

A

-4.85

0.365

Louisiana Lafayette

62.26

H

21.06

0.934

Missouri

82.8

A

-4.72

0.368

Texas Tech

86.75

H

-3.43

0.403

Iowa State

60.47

H

22.85

0.949

Baylor

71.06

A

7.02

0.692

Oklahoma

94.15

H

-10.83

0.220

Kansas

78.8

A

-0.72

0.479

Kansas State

68.69

H

14.63

0.852

Colorado

69.36

A

8.72

0.733

Big XII (Assume Oklahoma)

94.15

 

-13.45

0.168

Bowl Game (Assume Florida)

98.74

 

-18.04

0.099

 

Probability

Odds, 1/n

Probability of Undefeated Reg. Season

0.0018908

529

Probability of Undefeated Big XII Champions

0.0003183

3142

Prob. Of National Title

3.144E-05

31806

 

Ratings are from Jeff Sagarin Ratings 1/10/09

Final Record Probability

Record

0-12

1-11

2-10

3-9

4-8

5-7

6-6

7-5

8-4

9-3

10-2

11-1

12-0

“Rating”

0

0

.00004

.00068

.00634

.03509

.11656

.23418

.28529

.20957

.08986

.02049

.00189

“Predictor”

0

0

.00004

.00076

.00740

.04142

.13507

.25681

.28689

.18971

.06964

.01314

.00093

“Elo-Chess”

0

0

.00004

.00065

.00587

.03184

.10607

.21811

.28057

.22189

.10459

.02679

.00286

 

I’ve been thinking of comparing the different ratings systems.  The “predictor,” as described by Sagarin’s website is where only margin of victory counts.  The BCS uses the “Elo-Chess” where only winning and losing matters and has nothing to do with margin of victory.  The “Rating” column is then the compromise between these two concepts.

Obviously we will need some quality wins to improve our rating and swing the games where we are not the clear favorite in our favor.  Even the games that we are a few points down, the only one we are a double digit underdog is the Oklahoma game, which is to be expected.

Rudy Moser: rmoser@lps.org